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compression

February 08, 2018

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420 in earnings reported flat year over year trading at 25 x the trail. bond yields at 7.5% which implies a fair value multiple of 14 (1/.075)

even at 20 x the trail compression

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average in

in the spirit of full disclosure government folly tends to be priced in after the headline. in this case it was not direct government folly, other than the notion the government should be in the banking business to begin with, but the age-old plan of a customer to co-opt a bank manager to extend credit without collateral or conscience and in this case the co option occurred at the level of the clerk responsible for simple ledger entry ultimately moving over $ 2 billion foir which the clerk is alleged to have made a risk free 2% but to the credit of seasoned actors in the price discovery of native capital markets by the time the headlines hit prices were in search of a bottom not a top in the authors' humble view being on the same side of the trade as the president of the country (the line item owner in the capital structure) is worthy of long-term rewards and aligned with the only management with a proper incentive for the solution further, it appears that th...

in the casino

bags of cash

The perpetrator spent seven years in Mexico spreading $4 million to government officials, union leadership, and intermediaries for the right to lend to their charges. The investigation started in 2017 and settled for $21 million, 3% of a 633 million market cap. The stock is flat for the year and up 60% from the March lows. Shorts are 26% of a float that trades 50,000 shares a day by appointment and would take twenty days to cover. Enjoy

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