the tell

the bet is that tax reform will provide $10 a share in sp earnings. plus or minus a few bucks this is the number in all models and accounts for most of the expected growth

strip out the 10 bucks and the virtuous cycle hits the spin dryer

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/08/west-wing-chaos-is-paralyzing-the-businesses-that-were-betting-on-trump

It goes without saying that temporary, watered-down tax cuts are not exactly the once-in-a-lifetime reform that the administration’s boosters had been hoping for. The result has been rising uncertainty in the business community, rather than the golden era that had been promised. Banks have “purposefully pulled back” on financing projects “until there is better clarity from Washington, D.C. on corporate tax rates,” financial services C.E.O. Scott Pagetold the Post. Many companies have “pause[d] in terms of the investments that they’re trying to make,” said Omnicom Group C.E.O. John Wren. “There’s nobody who can look out two or three years at this point and say with certainty that they’re going to know what tax policy is, what health-care costs are going to be.

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