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As Amay Hattangadi and Swanand Kelkar of Morgan Stanley pointed out in these pages last month, the consumer lending portfolio of the top 12 NBFCs is now almost the same size (around $92 billion) as the corresponding retail portfolio of the top five private sector banks. NBFCs are estimated to account for a 44% share in automobile loans and a 52% share in loans against property

India had seen a similar acceleration in personal loans in the years before the 2008 global financial crisis. Banks later had to clean up the mess. State Bank of India economist Soumya Kanti Ghosh has shown that the share of personal loans in total loans has been rising over the past two years, though it is still below the 2006 peak. As he commented in a research report published in April: “Personal loans share is currently rising in the total loan portfolio which leads one to wonder if this increase suggests a movement towards a similar glaring situation as had happened prior to 2008 global crisis when share of personal loans increased in total…

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